The Impact of Climate Change on Solar Power Generation in North East Thailand

Name: Mutyala Bapi Raju

ID: – 

Title: The Impact of Climate Change on Solar Power Generation in North East Thailand

Type: Thesis

Abstract

Solar energy is the ultimate source of energy whichis dependent on the solar radiation, due to climate change solar radiationvaries that emitting the surface due to the aerosol content or greenhousegasses present in the atmosphere. Climate change is an issue of global concernand its huge impact on solar power generation go unnoticed. This study focuseson climate change impact on solar power generation in northeastern region ofThailand and identifying the potential zones for future time period. ThreeGCMs: CNRM-CM5, MIROC-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-LR were used under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) for the future projection of solar radiation andtemperature and were corrected using linear scaling. The future projection oftemperatures on an average are expected to increase 2.66 oC to 6.72 oC. The projection of solar radiation showed on an average the highest increase by 16%and the maximum decrease by -4%, the projections of solar radiation are not predominant and varies periodically. The analysis for energy generation wasperformed using PV system model. Energy production of surin power plant is about to change with the change in solar radiation. The average expected energygeneration from the solar power plant shows a highest increase by 8.29% in2090s under RCP 4.5 for MPI GCM and the maximum decrease by 5.67% in 2030sunder RCP 8.5 for CNRM GCM. The analysis for all solar power plants in northeastregion was showed that the energy generation of around 30 power plants were remains to be stable (-2 to 2% change) in 2060s and 2090s and remaining 4 areabout to increase (2 to 8%). In 2030s, the energy production for 14 powerplants was expected to decrease and 22 power plants to remain stable in bothRCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 conditions. MIROC and MPI GCMs showed an increase in energyproduction whereas CNRM mode shows decrease in energy generation due to thevariability of projected solar radiation. Potential zones were mapped usingsolar radiation data for future periods, the results show that areas of thevery high (12 to 16%) and high (8 to 12%) potential zones are increasing in2060s and 2090s. Results showed that most of the existing solar power plantswere in low (0 to 4%) zones. However, MIROC showed best case for energygeneration and while CNRM shows a worst case for energy production in future.Installed capacity need to be increased in high potential zones to generate higher amount of energy.

Keywords:Climate Change, Solar Energy, PV System, GCMs, Linear scaling, RCPs

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